Average annual temperatures are expected to be at least 1 ° C above those of the pre-industrial era in each of the next four years, the WMO has announced. A report released last year, co-signed by NOAA, NASA, Berkeley Earth, Hadley Center, and the Japanese Meteorological Agency, had previously announced a similar situation.
Based on data collected by 6,300 weather stations, researchers revealed that the past four years had been the warmest on record in the world since 1880. Overall, the average global temperature has increased by about 1 ° C since the pre-industrial era.
According to a new report signed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a branch of the United Nations, we should follow the same tangent over the next few years. According to the report, global average temperatures over the period 2020-2024 are expected to be at least 1 ° C higher than the pre-industrial era, with likely peaks exceeding 1.5 ° C.
“This study shows – with a high level of scientific competence – the huge challenge to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change,” said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas.
As a reminder, this agreement aims to maintain an increase in global temperature this century below 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels. And, if possible, continue efforts to limit this increase to 1.5 ° C.
Note that these new WMO forecasts do not consider the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions inherent in the “stand by” of economic and industrial activities triggered by the coronavirus crisis.
“Due to the very long lifespan of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the impact of the decrease in emissions this year should not lead to a reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentrations which lead to an increase in global temperature“, emphasizes Petteri Taalas.
According to these new forecasts, all regions of the world will be affected, apart from certain Southern Ocean areas. The northern North Atlantic region could experience stronger westerly winds. Weather phenomena which should further favor the formation of storms in Western Europe.
The high latitudes and Sahel regions will also be wetter than the recent past (1980-2010 period), the organization predicts. Conversely, many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are expected to be drier.