When Britons voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, few imagined that less than a decade later the country would already be debating the possibility of going back. The 52–48 result was sold as final, historic, and irreversible—a clean break with Brussels after more than forty years of membership. Yet politics has a way of reopening doors once thought closed.
Today, with public opinion tilting toward regret and younger generations overwhelmingly pro-European, the once unthinkable question has gained legitimacy: can the United Kingdom rejoin the EU, and under what terms? The answer is not simple. Legally, yes. Politically, far harder. Culturally, perhaps the most complicated of all.
The Legal Path: Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union
The first point of clarity is that the EU’s treaties do allow for countries to apply for membership after leaving. Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union sets out the process by which any European country can apply to join.
This means that Britain, in principle, has the right to reapply. There is no “ban” on return, nor does Brexit permanently exclude the UK. But Article 49 requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states, plus ratification by their national parliaments (and in some cases referendums). In short: legally possible, but politically daunting.
A fresh application would require Britain to meet the Copenhagen Criteria: stable democratic institutions, a functioning market economy, and the ability to adopt EU laws. The UK meets those standards, but the process would involve years of negotiation, screening, and reforms. Britain would essentially need to prove its commitment all over again.
Would the EU Even Want Britain Back?
While the UK could apply, the bigger question is whether the EU would say yes.
Distrust After Brexit
Brexit left scars in Brussels. Many EU leaders felt betrayed by the UK’s decision to leave, particularly after decades of being an “awkward partner” that resisted integration. The idea of welcoming Britain back only to risk another departure later is a fear many would raise.
Conditions of Reentry
If the UK were to rejoin, it’s unlikely it would regain the special opt-outs it once had. Britain never adopted the euro, remained outside the Schengen free-movement zone, and enjoyed budget rebates. These concessions were hard-won and controversial. It is doubtful the EU would grant them again.
This means that if Britain reapplied, it might be required to commit fully—to the euro, to Schengen, and to deeper integration. For many in Britain, particularly among Eurosceptics, that would be politically toxic.
The EU’s Strategic Interest
That said, some argue that bringing the UK back would strengthen Europe geopolitically. With Russia’s war in Ukraine and growing global competition, the EU may one day see Britain’s return as strategically valuable. But it would want assurances that Britain was fully committed this time.
Public Opinion in Britain: Regret and Realism
Rising “Bregret”
Polls since 2021 show a consistent rise in “Bregret.” Surveys from YouGov and Ipsos suggest that 55–60% of Britons now believe Brexit was a mistake, with many saying they would vote to rejoin if a referendum were held. Young people are particularly pro-European, with strong majorities favoring closer ties.
The Political Divide
However, public opinion does not automatically translate into policy. The Conservative Party, which remains dominated by Brexit-supporters, has little appetite for reopening the question. Even the Labour Party under Keir Starmer, while critical of Brexit’s damage, has avoided promising reentry, instead focusing on “making Brexit work.”
Rejoining would require enormous political capital and a leader willing to risk dividing the electorate again with another referendum. At present, no major party has committed to that path.
Economic Arguments for and Against Rejoining
The Case for Rejoining
Economically, there are strong arguments that rejoining would boost Britain. Studies from the London School of Economics and the Centre for European Reform estimate Brexit has reduced UK GDP by 4–5% compared to staying in. Trade with the EU, Britain’s largest market, has declined, while businesses face new frictions.
Rejoining would restore frictionless trade, attract investment, and stabilize industries hit hard by Brexit such as farming, fishing, and manufacturing. Many economists believe it would be the fastest way to repair Britain’s growth trajectory.
The Case Against
On the other hand, rejoining could require Britain to adopt the euro or accept EU budget contributions higher than before. Some argue that Britain’s flexibility as an independent state could allow it to craft tailored trade policies globally—though so far, the trade deals signed have not compensated for EU losses.
Opponents also warn that rejoining could reignite the very divisions Brexit created, reopening cultural and political wounds rather than healing them.
Scotland, Northern Ireland, and the Union
Brexit has intensified questions about the future of the United Kingdom itself.
- Scotland voted 62% to remain in the EU. Since Brexit, calls for a new independence referendum have grown louder, with many Scots arguing they were dragged out against their will. A UK reapplication to the EU could change the Scottish debate dramatically, either reducing the push for independence (if Britain rejoined) or strengthening it (if Scotland sought its own EU membership).
- Northern Ireland faces its own complexities. The Northern Ireland Protocol keeps it aligned with EU rules to avoid a hard border, effectively making it a hybrid space between the UK and EU. Rejoining would simplify this arrangement, but the politics around sovereignty remain explosive.
In this sense, rejoining could also be tied to the survival of the Union itself.
Generational Shifts: The Long Game
One of the strongest arguments for eventual rejoining lies in demographics. Younger Britons overwhelmingly support EU membership, while Brexit’s strongest support came from older voters. Over time, this generational divide may naturally shift the political balance toward reentry.
If public opinion continues to tilt toward rejoining, future governments may feel compelled to revisit the question, even if the current political class avoids it.
The Roadblocks Ahead
Even if Britain applied to rejoin, several hurdles would loom:
- Referendum or Not? Any government proposing reentry would likely face demands for another referendum. After the turmoil of 2016, many would insist the people must decide again.
- EU Conditions: The EU could require Britain to commit fully to integration, without special exceptions. This could include adopting the euro and Schengen, politically difficult steps in the UK.
- Trust Issues: Britain would need to rebuild trust with EU leaders who may doubt its long-term commitment.
- Timeframe: Membership negotiations typically take years. Even if Britain applied, rejoining before the 2030s would be unlikely.
A Middle Path: Closer Alignment Without Membership
Some analysts argue that full rejoining is unlikely soon, but closer alignment is possible. Britain could negotiate reentry into the single market via the European Economic Area (EEA), similar to Norway, or customs union agreements like Turkey.
This would restore many economic benefits without the political leap of full membership. It could also serve as a stepping stone if Britain eventually sought to rejoin fully.
Conclusion: A Remote but Real Possibility
So, can the UK rejoin the European Union? Yes, legally it can. But politically, it would be one of the most difficult feats in modern history. Rejoining would require a government with enormous political courage, a public mandate through elections or a referendum, and a willingness to accept conditions far less favorable than the opt-outs Britain once enjoyed.
For now, rejoining remains more of a long-term prospect than an imminent reality. But the forces of demography, economics, and public opinion may slowly pull Britain back toward Europe. The next decade will likely see closer cooperation, and perhaps by the 2030s or 2040s, serious debates about rejoining could emerge.
Brexit reshaped Britain. Whether rejoining could repair the fractures—or simply create new ones—remains one of the great unanswered questions of the 21st century.
